Source: Sacramento Bee, San Francisco Chronicle, No-on-8 press release
A majority of Californians would vote against Proposition 8, a new election-eve Field Poll reveals.
A survey that was conducted Oct. 18 through 28 shows that the measure that aims to deny marriage equality for gay and lesbian couples is supported by 44 percent of likely voters. Forty-nine percent oppose it, and 7 percent are undecided.
Over the past six weeks, the ballot measure has gained substantial ground but still trails by a five-point margin heading into Tuesday's election. The surveys results have a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
In the last Field Poll, released Sept. 18, the measure was behind by 17 points.
In a prepared statement on the poll, No-on-8 senior campaign advisor Steve Smith said the campaign is "highly energised" by the new numbers.
"The Field Poll shows that Prop 8's deceptive campaign has failed to move their numbers much at all," Smith said. "Prop 8 is trying to run a campaign to get to a Yes vote, yet they have remained in this and other polls well below the 50 percent margin necessary for success."
In television ads, supporters have expanded their arguments beyond the issue of whether gay couples should be allowed to marry to warn that schools would incorporate same-sex marriage into lesson plans, Sacramento Bee reports.
Opponents have dismissed those claims as scare tactics. They've argued that by eliminating the right of gays to marry, the measure would deprive one group of a freedom enjoyed by another group, Sacramento Bee reports.
"It's certainly closer than it was before the advertising campaign hit," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "A lot of that has to do with the campaigning on the Yes (on 8) side."
"The ('Yes') campaign has been effective, but will it be enough?" he said.
"I like the fact that the 'Yes' side is stuck in the mid-40s," No-on-8's Smith said. "The other side is clearly having trouble crossing the 50 percent barrier."
History suggests that Prop. 8 supporters have a tough road ahead, DiCamillo said.
"Undecided voters in proposition races tend to come down on the 'No' side," he added.
But Prop. 8 supporters were pleased with the new numbers, San Francisco Chronicle reports.
"We're moving in the right direction," said Chip White, a spokesman for Yes on Prop. 8. "Momentum is clearly on our side in what's going to be a close race."
As the debate has intensified, many supporters and opponents have taken a closer look at the measure – and in some cases been persuaded by arguments from the other side, said DeCamillo.
The poll showed just how divided voters are over same-sex marriage. Sixty-five percent of likely voters agreed that traditional marriage is "one of the cornerstones of the country's Judeo-Christian heritage" and 50 percent agreed that Prop. 8 restores the institution of traditional marriage without taking domestic partnership rights from gay or lesbian couples, San Francisco Chronicle reports.
But 61 percent also agreed that Prop. 8 would deny one class of citizens "the dignity and responsibility of marriage" and 58 percent believe that domestic partnership laws don't give same-sex couples "the same certainty and security that marriage laws provide."
With individuals forced to deal with their own conflicting views on the same-sex marriage issue, "voters are giving this a much more nuanced look" in the days before the election, DiCamillo said.
Voters supporting Democrat Barack Obama for president overwhelmingly oppose Proposition 8, and those backing Republican John McCain overwhelmingly support it, according to the poll.
A Field Poll released earlier this week showed Obama leading McCain in California by a whopping 22 points.
Minority groups, expected to come out strongly for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday, could play a key role in the Prop. 8 vote, San Francisco Chronicle reports. Latino voters are split almost evenly, 46 to 48 percent, on the measure, while black voters back the same-sex marriage ban, 49 to 43 percent.
Catholics, who make up nearly a quarter of likely voters, also could make a difference, DiCamillo said. Catholics opposed Prop. 8 by a 48 to 44 percent margin, but that's down from 55 to 36 percent a month ago.
When the Proposition 22 same-sex marriage ban was on the ballot in 2000, Catholics were split almost evenly in the final pre-election poll, DiCamillo said. But exit polls showed Catholics actually voting for Prop. 22 by 15 points.
"The Sunday before the election could be important, since people may hear priests and ministers preaching against same-sex marriage," he said.
The poll found that 22 percent of those surveyed already have voted and that this group backed Prop. 8, 50 to 44 percent. But the early voters are older and somewhat more conservative than those who will cast ballots at the polls, DiCamillo said.
Voters 65 and older is the only age group that supports Prop. 8, while people in California's populous coastal region oppose the measure, 54 to 39 percent.
"This poll is showing the (Central Valley) strongly on the 'Yes' side," DiCamillo said. "It's just the rest of the state – the coastal counties – that is heavily on the 'No' side."
The Field Poll organization surveyed 966 Californians who have voted or are considered likely to vote. The telephone questionnaires were conducted between October 18 and 28. The results have a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Source: 'Yes on Prop. 8' gaining on foes, poll finds | Sacramento Bee
Prop. 8 still trails, but margin narrows | San Francisco Chronicle
NO on 8 Statement on Field Poll | MarketWatch (No-on-8) press release