Qnews update: 10/22 poll: Anti-gay Prop. 8 trailing; Obama turnout could be the difference 23-Oct-08 
Poll and No-on-8 campaign say anti-gay Prop. 8 would pass 8-Oct-08

Just 38 percent of likely voters back Proposition 8 while 55 percent say they will vote against the Nov. 4 ballot measure, according to a new Field Poll. In July, the measure trailed by nine points, Sacramento Bee reports.

Since the Field Poll's July survey, the heading on the ballot summary has been changed on voter pamphlets to read "Eliminates right of same-sex couples to marry."

Petitions to gather signatures for the ballot measure began with the words "Limit on Marriage", but Attorney General Jerry Brown decided to change the wording after the state Supreme Court in May overturned a ban on gay marriages in California.

Those changes were unsuccessfully challenged in court by supporters of the proposition, who argued it was misleading.

The poll sought to examine what effect that new ballot language had on voters' views. It found that opposition to the ban increased slightly when voters were shown the new language instead of the original, San Jose Mercury News reports.

To reach that finding, voters in the study were randomly divided into two groups. Half the respondents were read the original summary and the other half the amended version to test voter reaction.

While support for the measure remained static at 38 percent for both groups, opposition increased from 52 percent to 55 percent.

"That has to do with the description," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "Eliminating an individual right, no matter what that right might be, is not as popular as the alternative."

DiCamillo said these were "people who were unaware of the initiative" and the amended version "pulled them more to the 'No' side."

DiCamillo explained, "Voters generally support individual rights, so eliminating a right has a more negative connotation than 'limit on marriage'."

The No on Prop 8 campaign remains nervous, despite the poll numbers, partly because the anti-gay Yes-on-8 campaign has been able to raise more money for last-minute TV ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.

Supporters of Prop 8 have been more successful at raising money than the opposition -- by a $16.2 million to $10.8 million difference, according to California Majority Report.

"You've probably heard that the polls show our side ahead. Some are saying that victory for our side is a sure thing," Dale Kelly Bankhead, the campaign manager for the No on Prop 8 campaign said in a recent e-mail.

"Don't be fooled! This race is too close to call. The ugly truth we have learned from defeat after defeat in states across the country is that people lie on polls, especially about how they feel about LGBT people. In contest after contest, from Wisconsin to Colorado, we have gone into election day with polls showing our side with 7 to 10 points more support than we actually received at the ballot box."

The Yes-on-8 campaigners who hope to write discrimination into the constitution are still confident despite the new poll.

"That was certainly something we expected to see," said Jennifer Kerns, spokeswoman for the Yes-on-8 campaign. She again argued, "historically, the Field Poll has underestimated support for traditional marriage."

When broken down across party affiliation, religion or geography, today's Field Poll revealed a handful of other, subtle changes when compared with July's poll, which marked the first independent examination of the issue following the California Supreme Court's decision June 4 to remove the last hurdles to same-sex marriages, San Jose Mercury News reports.

More voters in inland counties now appear opposed to the measure than in favor, 48 percent to 44 percent. That's a significant shift from July, when 40 percent said they opposed the ban with 54 percent in favor, the Mercury News reports.

The new poll also showed slightly softening support among Protestants and Catholics and among Democrats and Republicans alike.

While a majority of Protestants back Proposition 8, larger majorities of Catholics, those affiliated with other religions, and those with no preference intend to vote "No," according to the poll, the Bee reports.

Source: Politics - Field Poll finds gay marriage ban trails by 17 points - sacbee.com
Field Poll: Opposition grows to Prop. 8, the same-sex marriage ban | San Jose Mercury News
Prop 8: Marriage Equality Ban Trails by 17 Points Among Likely Voters, But Money Gap Concerns Opposition | California Majority Report