Source: San Jose Mercury News, Bay Area Reporter
SACRAMENTO -- The November ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage would be soundly defeated if the election were held today, according to a statewide poll released Wednesday.
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey found that Proposition 8 is favored by only 40 percent of likely voters and opposed by 54 percent. Just 6 percent of the 2,001 Californians polled said they hadn't taken a position on the measure.
Findings are based on a telephone survey of California adult residents interviewed from August 12-19, 2008.
"There doesn't seem to be a lot of room for discussion or debate," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and chief executive.
Funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the new poll is the third one to be released since May showing that a majority of voters oppose amending the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage.
The PPIC polling results are a slight increase in opposition to the anti-gay measure from a Field Poll released in July that found only 51 percent of likely voters intended to vote no on the initiative.
The latest survey results mirror a Field Poll released in May that found 54 percent of registered voters statewide oppose banning same-sex marriage.
In a statement about the poll results, Baldassare noted that the November outcome is likely to be affected by how strongly voters feel about the issue of same-sex marriage.
The San Francisco-based PPIC found that those who favor the ban appear to be more motivated to go to the polls. Forty-eight percent of all likely voters said the outcome of the initiative was "very important" to them. Of those, 57 percent were inclined to vote yes, and 44 percent would likely vote no.
"Californians who plan to vote for Proposition 8 appear to hold that view with greater intensity than the opposition -- which means they are very motivated to vote," said PPIC's Baldassare.
"I think there is some positive news that comes from this today," said Jennifer Kerns, a spokeswoman for the Proposition 8 campaign. "What's noteworthy about this poll is how deep the support for Proposition 8 goes.''
Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California, the statewide LGBT lobbying group that is spearheading the fight to defeat Prop 8, called the latest polling results "heartening." But he cautioned the numbers could reverse next month, as the Protect Marriage side pushing Prop 8 will begin airing television ads throughout the state, according to a report by Bay Area Reporter.
The coalition opposed to the initiative, Equality for All, released a statement saying the poll shows "the trend is obviously in the right direction," but warned of a tough campaign ahead. "The fundamental question here is: Are we going to eliminate the fundamental right of marriage for same sex couples?" said Steve Smith, the campaign's general consultant.
Source: Poll finds gay-marriage ban lacking support | San Jose Mercury News
Third poll shows Prop 8 trailing | Bay Area Reporter